Today's Polls

Note: I am starting typing at 5:13 PM. There are 18 polls in 14 races to add.

Hope everyone had a good weekend. I'm nearly over my cold and will be catching up today with updates and e-mail. I still have some unanswered e-mail from last week, so please be patient.

So, straight to it then. In order of competitiveness:

In Colorado, Zogby polls the race with Salazar leading 52-41. I have trouble believing this poll, though, as it also showed Kerry ahead of Bush by four points, when every other poll shows the President ahead a considerable margin. I think this is a definite outlier. Even so, the lead has flopped back and forth between polls in this race, and the call remains Toss-up.

In Florida, a couple of polls show this race clearly quite close. Zogby shows Martinez ahead 47-44, while a St. Pete Times/Miami Herald poll shows the race tied at 44. Out of seven polls in the last ten days, four have this race tied. Two have Martinez ahead, and one has Castor ahead, all within the margin of error. If I had to call this one now, I'd say Martinez would win by about 7 votes, but for now this race is a complete Toss-up.

Breaking from polls for a moment, Martinez will likely be appearing at a rally with Vice President Cheney tomorrow in Lake City, my hometown. I will be attending, and as an officer in the local Young Republicans, I'll be in VVIP seating, right behind the podium, on stage. I'm quite excited. But back to my non-partisan analytical self...

At last, a poll in the South Dakota race emerges. But, alas, it is a Republican poll from McLaughlin & Associates. It shows Thune ahead 49-45. Surely Tom Daschle must be quite frightened by now. Still Toss-up though, but another poll showing Thune ahead, this close to the election, will confirm my suspicions that Thune may just win this one.

In Louisiana, a poll from Renwick shows Vitter with a rather miniscule 39%, and Kennedy is actually leading John 18%-15% in the race for second. RCP has adopted a nifty system of showing, instead of Vitter's lead over his nearest Democratic opponent, how far he is from reaching the magical 50% in each poll. I like that idea, and will implement it in the Louisiana page. Regardless, this one stays Leaning Rep. takeover, although another poll showing Vitter this far from avoiding a runoff will change that.

In North Carolina, a couple of polls show Burr still ahead of Bowles. Rasmussen shows him leading by four, 49-45. The John Locke Foundation, another poll of origins unknown to me, shows him ahead 43-42. Regardless, this race remains Leaning Rep. takeover. Did I not predict Burr would eventually lead, even when, several months ago, he was ten points down? Kudos to Burr for exploiting Bowles' most glaring weakness - his connection to the Clinton White House, where he served as Chief of Staff.

In South Carolina, a Mason-Dixon poll shows DeMint leading Tenenbaum 47-43. This race is quite clearly still Leaning Rep. takeover, albeit by a slightly smaller margin than previously. Methinks DeMint will keep this lead until Election Day.

In Oklahoma, several polls show a tight race. A 10/20 Consumer Logic poll shows Carson leading by an incredible margin of 47-40, a far cry from the results of many other pollsters in the race, such as Rasmussen, who, in a poll released one day later, finds Coburn leading 48-43, and the latest Sooner Poll showing Coburn ahead 38-37. The last Sooner Poll had Carson ahead 2, but by a margin of 43-41, so both candidates' support levels have fallen since that poll. I have no knowledge of past Consumer Logic polls or the Tulsa World newpaper that commissioned it, and its odd topline does not jibe with other polls of the race. I'm tempted to throw it out as an outlier or biased poll. Four of the five polls this week, and seven of ten this month, have Coburn ahead, so, whether or not the Consumer Logic poll factors in, I'm leaving this as Leaning Rep. retention, albeit closer to Toss-up than previously.

In Kentucky, a Bluegrass poll shows Bunning ahead 49-43. This poll makes two major points: while (a) this race is most decidedly closer than it was three weeks ago, it is (b) not nearly as close as the Democrats would like you to think it is. Likely Rep. retention.

A Zogby poll of Wisconsin shows Feingold leading Michels 54-42. While this is clearly not a top-tier competitive race, it is neither wide open enough to call Safe. Thus, Probably Dem. retention.

In Illinois, a Chicago Tribune poll shows Obama leading 66-19, a movement of four whole points towards Keyes since their last poll. This race is quite clearly a complete Toss-up.

Just kidding. Still, quite unexcitedly, Easy Dem. takeover.

In Pennsylvania, Zogby shows an interesting result: Specter leading by ten, 48-38. I doubt quite highly this will be a problem race for Specter, but as he has been consistently polling less than 20 points ahead, this is moved to Probably Rep. retention, a purely cosmetic change at this point in the race, and I do not plan to create a discrete Race Page for this race.

Other Non-Competitive Races:

In Ohio, Zogby shows Voinovich leading 58-30, consistent with the race's designation of Safe Rep. retention.

In Nevada, Asst. Minority Leader Harry Reid should have no trouble holding his seat and poised to take the reins in case Daschle takes a fall, as Zogby shows him ahead 61-30. Safe Dem. retention.

And, finally, in Iowa, Zog shows incumbent Grassley cruising over his opponent 66-25. Safe Rep. retention.

Done at: 6:07 PM. 1 hour, 1300+ words later, and all the new polls are up. Still to do: update race pages, and I should probably start compiling my final predictions. The election is but a week away! 'Twill be done later tonight, as I presently have other demands on my time.

I'm off. Thanks to those who have sent feedback; I hope to reply to e-mail tonight or sooner. There don't seem to have been any new plugs, but my readership is continually increasing, so I can only assume I'm beginning to accumulate a regular readership. Several folks have already acknowledged such. Thanks to them especially. Have a lovely day, all.

9:49 PM Update: Well, still I have not done the Race Page updates. Will work on them soon, but not yet. Now, off to bed...