October 27, 2004
Just a quick post and no updates tonight. Other things to do and not many polls today anyway.
Also, I want to thank all the visitors from Daly Thoughts again. My previous record for daily hits has been nearly doubled, with 5 hours still left in the day. I'm disappointed, though, that no one has left feedback of any sort. I'm always looking to improve the site, and, this late in the election season, gather tips for '06. The positive response I've gotten thus far means I'll likely be back for the next election cycle.
Anyways, on to the polls:
Zogby Tracking Results: - My comments from yesterday apply.
Colorado: Salazar 53, Coors 43. Toss-up.
Florida: Castor 48, Martinez 45. Toss-up.
Wisconsin: Feingold 57, Michels 38. Probably Dem. retention.
Pennsylvania: Specter 54, Hoeffel 33. Safe Rep. retention.
Iowa: Grassley 66, Small 27. Safe Rep. retention.
Nevada: Reid 59, Ziser 30. Safe Dem. retention.
Ohio: Voinovich 54, Fingerhut 34. Safe Rep. retention.
Also, the MRI tracking poll of Louisiana shows Vitter breaking 50 for the first time, at 51%. Kennedy still leads John 17%-15%. Still decidedly Leaning Rep. takeover.
And, in South Dakota, two new polls seemingly contradict each other. KELO-TV shows Daschle ahead 49-47, while Rasmussen (no link, on RCP) has Thune ahead 49-46. I'm slightly more inclined to trust the Rasmussen poll, as he is a reputable professional pollster, but that may be just me. Had either of these polls come out by themselves, I would probably swing this race to the leading candidate, but simultaneously, they clearly show a Toss-up race.
That's all for me today folks. Once again, e-mail and comments are always appreciated.
9:50 PM Update: When I said no updates today, I lied. Every Race Page has been updated and uploaded, along with the Overview page. I'm done now. For real. G'night, folks...
Also, I want to thank all the visitors from Daly Thoughts again. My previous record for daily hits has been nearly doubled, with 5 hours still left in the day. I'm disappointed, though, that no one has left feedback of any sort. I'm always looking to improve the site, and, this late in the election season, gather tips for '06. The positive response I've gotten thus far means I'll likely be back for the next election cycle.
Anyways, on to the polls:
Zogby Tracking Results: - My comments from yesterday apply.
Colorado: Salazar 53, Coors 43. Toss-up.
Florida: Castor 48, Martinez 45. Toss-up.
Wisconsin: Feingold 57, Michels 38. Probably Dem. retention.
Pennsylvania: Specter 54, Hoeffel 33. Safe Rep. retention.
Iowa: Grassley 66, Small 27. Safe Rep. retention.
Nevada: Reid 59, Ziser 30. Safe Dem. retention.
Ohio: Voinovich 54, Fingerhut 34. Safe Rep. retention.
Also, the MRI tracking poll of Louisiana shows Vitter breaking 50 for the first time, at 51%. Kennedy still leads John 17%-15%. Still decidedly Leaning Rep. takeover.
And, in South Dakota, two new polls seemingly contradict each other. KELO-TV shows Daschle ahead 49-47, while Rasmussen (no link, on RCP) has Thune ahead 49-46. I'm slightly more inclined to trust the Rasmussen poll, as he is a reputable professional pollster, but that may be just me. Had either of these polls come out by themselves, I would probably swing this race to the leading candidate, but simultaneously, they clearly show a Toss-up race.
That's all for me today folks. Once again, e-mail and comments are always appreciated.
9:50 PM Update: When I said no updates today, I lied. Every Race Page has been updated and uploaded, along with the Overview page. I'm done now. For real. G'night, folks...
posted by K1avg at 6:31 PM
6 Comments:
Don't forget California! The race simply *must* be close, as evidenced by Boxer's need to run TV ads!
Or maybe not. But one reason that people might not leave comments is that it is sooooo paaaainfully slooooow to do so.
--Joshua Cannon
Sacramento, CA
That's two polls in a row that show Salazar ahead of Coors by a fairly sizeable margin...while my heart tells me Coors is going to pull this thing out, my head is telling me that Salazar seems to have a lead...I think based on the polls I would designate this as Leaning Dem. Takeover.
Sorry Josh about the wait. I have no control over the Blogger system, although I'm sure they're aware of the delay problem.
Regarding the California race, it has never really been close, never moving closer than a Likely Dem. retention, and I recently moved it to Safe for Boxer after Jones pulled a $1.2 million loan to himself from his campaign coffers, effectively conceding the race. Boxer could stop running ads now and still win.
Dirk, both polls which I believe you refer to are the Zogby tracking polls. The latest poll from another source is the last SUSA poll, which showed Coors ahead 4. I have a significant beef with the Zogby poll, and I'm now convinced it's off by a lot, as the presidential component of the same polls show Kerry ahead in the state, where every other poll shows Bush ahead at least 5 points. Why this is I'm not sure, but the Zogby CO poll has been discounted in my mind as of late.
That's my reasoning, anyway. Believe what you will, but I think the results on Election Day will be significantly closer than what Zogby currently shows, thus Toss-up.
KQQL_____
NEW ZOGBY SD senate poll
______________________
Thune 48.5%
Daschle 45.4%
Diedrich 48.3%
Herseth 45.5%
Begay >1%
MoE 3.5%
_________
Daschle Poll says he's up
50-48%
and
Thune says his polls says he's up by 4%
_______
KQQL_____
NEW ZOGBY SD senate poll
______________________
Thune 48.5%
Daschle 45.4%
Diedrich 48.3%
Herseth 45.5%
Begay >1%
MoE 3.5%
_________
Daschle Poll says he's up
50-48%
and
Thune says his polls says he's up by 4%
_______
Update
New ZOGBY South Dakota Polls as
reported by rapidcityjournal.
Thune 48.5%
Daschle 45.5%
Diedrich 48.3%
Herseth 45.5%
Begay >1%
MoE 3.5%
Oct 25-26
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
New ZOGBY South Dakota Polls as
reported by kotatv
______________________
Thune 48%
Daschle 45.5%
Diedrich 47.2%
Herseth 46.1%
Begay 1%
MoE 3.5%
Oct 25-26
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Daschle's Poll:
Daschle 50%
Thune48%
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thune's Poll
Thune +4
-------------------------K^Q_Q^L
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