October 26, 2004
Hate to post and run, but I've been working on the Race Pages for over two hours now (and yes, they're ALL updated, even with today's polls), and dinner awaits.
Still, several topics to cover today:
The Dick Cheney rally today was quite an awesome experience. After all, how many folks can say they were within feet of the Vice President of the USA. I must say he is quite more personable in person than the mainstream media makes him out to be, and a great orator to boot. Martinez didn't show, and neither did Congressman Crenshaw, who was said to possibly be there. I didn't quite get the seats I wanted - VVIP was apparently overbooked, so I was standing off to the side of the stage, but still in quite a good spot.
But enough about that. This isn't a personal blog, after all! I'm here to inform, and thus:
The Zogby polls from yesterday and today are part of Zog's Battleground Tracking Polls, and apparently he throws in a Senate question wherever there's a race in the ten battlegrounds. While battlegrounds such as Colorado and Florida have competitive Senate races as well, and this is a boon, other battlegrounds, such as Ohio and Nevada, have very uncompetitive races, and tracking polls such as this are quite useless. Still, we report every poll, and the tracking toplines will be posted here daily. Here's today's batch, in rough order of competitiveness. I'm listing only the topline and the state's designation. To get my brief analysis, you'll have to visit the Race Page. Without further ado:
Colorado: Salazar 50, Coors 44. Toss-up.
Florida: Martinez 47, Castor 47. Toss-up.
Wisconsin: Feingold 54, Michels 41. Probably Dem. retention.
Pennsylvania: Specter 53, Hoeffel 35. Safe Rep. retention.
Iowa: Grassley 65, Small 28. Safe Rep. retention.
Nevada: Reid 61, Ziser 31. Safe Dem. retention.
Ohio: Voinovich 55, Fingerhut 32. Safe Rep. retention.
Note this, because I'm only going to post this once: all Zogby tracking updates will be put up here.
More polls on the day (abridged-version analysis today):
In Florida, an SUSA poll shows Castor ahead by three, making the tally over the past week-and-a-half 2 with Castor ahead, two with Martinez ahead, and six with the race even. I don't know who to trust on this one, although, notably, SUSA's new poll shows five points of movement towards Castor, and Zogby's tracking finds three points movement towards Castor just yesterday. Interesting, but still Toss-up.
Another MRI poll of Louisiana shows Vitter just one point short of 50%, and shows Kennedy (with 17%) leading John (with 16%) for the second poll in a row. Otherwise, nothing new to report. Leaning Rep. takeover.
A SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina shows Burr leading Bowles 50-44. This is Burr's largest lead yet and five of the last six polls have shown him ahead. This is his race to lose now. Leaning Rep. takeover.
In South Carolina, Jim DeMint still appears to be cruising towards a victory in the Senate race, and the newest SUSA poll, showing him ahead 13 points, 52%-39%, confirms his current lead. Still, this race will stay Leaning Rep. takeover until another poll shows DeMint has reclaimed his previous double-digit lead. SUSA has had some whopping outliers in the past, and it will take another poll to show whether this latest poll or the one before it was the off one.
The newest Wilson Research tracking poll shows Coburn leading 41-38 in Oklahoma, constituting no movement at all in margin since their last poll. Still Leaning Rep. retention, and looking stronger by the day.
Just as I move Pennsylvania to a less safe designation, the polls seemingly contradict me. Four polls today: Zogby tracking shows Specter jumping ahead to an 18-point lead, 53-35, Mason-Dixon shows Specter ahead by the same margin, 50-32, and Keystone shows the race even wider at 52-29. SurveyUSA, in a poll released earlier today, shows the race closer at 51-38. Still, this is clearly no 7-10 point race, so I'm moving it back to Safe Rep. retention, where, barring major incident or injury, it will quite likely stay until Election Day.
In the Non-Competitive Races:
Even over a week since their last poll of the race, SUSA finds Lincoln's lead in Arkansas the same at 57-38. Safe Dem. retention.
In California, a new SUSA poll shows Boxer's lead at 15 points, 53-38 over Jones. While technically far below the Safe designation threshold, this close to the election, I'm inclined to leave this one at Safe Dem. retention.
Research 2000 finds little change in Indiana, as Bayh leads his challenger 65-31. Safe Dem. retention.
In Missouri, incumbent Sen. Bond's lead in the latest SUSA poll has increased significantly. He leads Nancy Farmer 60-34. Safe Rep. retention.
Two polls of Nevada. An older Las Vegas Sun poll shows Reid leading 63-29, while the Zogby tracking shows him ahead a mere 61-31. Neither, obviously, changes the designation from Safe Dem. retention.
Both SurveyUSA and Zogby shows little change in Ohio: Voinovich leads 55-32 in the Zogby tracking, 59-33 in the SUSA poll. Safe Rep. retention.
Seems a bunch of polls for the Non-Competitive Races, until one realizes that all the races being polled are in presidential battleground states. Pollsters can tack on a Senate horserace question with little added effort or cost to a poll of the presidential race in a state, and as a consequence, many do. See the Zogby tracking bit above.
All of the Race Pages have been updated, including even today's polls. I need to start compiling my final predictions, and will probably have those ready by Monday of next week. Ron at Politics1 has already given his predictions. If you're looking for predictions NOW, or looking to form your own, I suggest you check them out, but also keep in mind the polls of the races too...
Alas, forty minutes later, and now I am very hungered. Please send feedback. I will answer e-mail after dinner. For real this time. I still have e-mails from last week unread. Good night, all, and thanks for your patronage.
Still, several topics to cover today:
The Dick Cheney rally today was quite an awesome experience. After all, how many folks can say they were within feet of the Vice President of the USA. I must say he is quite more personable in person than the mainstream media makes him out to be, and a great orator to boot. Martinez didn't show, and neither did Congressman Crenshaw, who was said to possibly be there. I didn't quite get the seats I wanted - VVIP was apparently overbooked, so I was standing off to the side of the stage, but still in quite a good spot.
But enough about that. This isn't a personal blog, after all! I'm here to inform, and thus:
The Zogby polls from yesterday and today are part of Zog's Battleground Tracking Polls, and apparently he throws in a Senate question wherever there's a race in the ten battlegrounds. While battlegrounds such as Colorado and Florida have competitive Senate races as well, and this is a boon, other battlegrounds, such as Ohio and Nevada, have very uncompetitive races, and tracking polls such as this are quite useless. Still, we report every poll, and the tracking toplines will be posted here daily. Here's today's batch, in rough order of competitiveness. I'm listing only the topline and the state's designation. To get my brief analysis, you'll have to visit the Race Page. Without further ado:
Colorado: Salazar 50, Coors 44. Toss-up.
Florida: Martinez 47, Castor 47. Toss-up.
Wisconsin: Feingold 54, Michels 41. Probably Dem. retention.
Pennsylvania: Specter 53, Hoeffel 35. Safe Rep. retention.
Iowa: Grassley 65, Small 28. Safe Rep. retention.
Nevada: Reid 61, Ziser 31. Safe Dem. retention.
Ohio: Voinovich 55, Fingerhut 32. Safe Rep. retention.
Note this, because I'm only going to post this once: all Zogby tracking updates will be put up here.
More polls on the day (abridged-version analysis today):
In Florida, an SUSA poll shows Castor ahead by three, making the tally over the past week-and-a-half 2 with Castor ahead, two with Martinez ahead, and six with the race even. I don't know who to trust on this one, although, notably, SUSA's new poll shows five points of movement towards Castor, and Zogby's tracking finds three points movement towards Castor just yesterday. Interesting, but still Toss-up.
Another MRI poll of Louisiana shows Vitter just one point short of 50%, and shows Kennedy (with 17%) leading John (with 16%) for the second poll in a row. Otherwise, nothing new to report. Leaning Rep. takeover.
A SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina shows Burr leading Bowles 50-44. This is Burr's largest lead yet and five of the last six polls have shown him ahead. This is his race to lose now. Leaning Rep. takeover.
In South Carolina, Jim DeMint still appears to be cruising towards a victory in the Senate race, and the newest SUSA poll, showing him ahead 13 points, 52%-39%, confirms his current lead. Still, this race will stay Leaning Rep. takeover until another poll shows DeMint has reclaimed his previous double-digit lead. SUSA has had some whopping outliers in the past, and it will take another poll to show whether this latest poll or the one before it was the off one.
The newest Wilson Research tracking poll shows Coburn leading 41-38 in Oklahoma, constituting no movement at all in margin since their last poll. Still Leaning Rep. retention, and looking stronger by the day.
Just as I move Pennsylvania to a less safe designation, the polls seemingly contradict me. Four polls today: Zogby tracking shows Specter jumping ahead to an 18-point lead, 53-35, Mason-Dixon shows Specter ahead by the same margin, 50-32, and Keystone shows the race even wider at 52-29. SurveyUSA, in a poll released earlier today, shows the race closer at 51-38. Still, this is clearly no 7-10 point race, so I'm moving it back to Safe Rep. retention, where, barring major incident or injury, it will quite likely stay until Election Day.
In the Non-Competitive Races:
Even over a week since their last poll of the race, SUSA finds Lincoln's lead in Arkansas the same at 57-38. Safe Dem. retention.
In California, a new SUSA poll shows Boxer's lead at 15 points, 53-38 over Jones. While technically far below the Safe designation threshold, this close to the election, I'm inclined to leave this one at Safe Dem. retention.
Research 2000 finds little change in Indiana, as Bayh leads his challenger 65-31. Safe Dem. retention.
In Missouri, incumbent Sen. Bond's lead in the latest SUSA poll has increased significantly. He leads Nancy Farmer 60-34. Safe Rep. retention.
Two polls of Nevada. An older Las Vegas Sun poll shows Reid leading 63-29, while the Zogby tracking shows him ahead a mere 61-31. Neither, obviously, changes the designation from Safe Dem. retention.
Both SurveyUSA and Zogby shows little change in Ohio: Voinovich leads 55-32 in the Zogby tracking, 59-33 in the SUSA poll. Safe Rep. retention.
Seems a bunch of polls for the Non-Competitive Races, until one realizes that all the races being polled are in presidential battleground states. Pollsters can tack on a Senate horserace question with little added effort or cost to a poll of the presidential race in a state, and as a consequence, many do. See the Zogby tracking bit above.
All of the Race Pages have been updated, including even today's polls. I need to start compiling my final predictions, and will probably have those ready by Monday of next week. Ron at Politics1 has already given his predictions. If you're looking for predictions NOW, or looking to form your own, I suggest you check them out, but also keep in mind the polls of the races too...
Alas, forty minutes later, and now I am very hungered. Please send feedback. I will answer e-mail after dinner. For real this time. I still have e-mails from last week unread. Good night, all, and thanks for your patronage.
posted by K1avg at 8:46 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home