It is the last Friday...

before the election. And due to my laziness yesterday I have a ton of polls to post. Twenty-six, to be exact. In 14 races. So, straight to it, then:

Zogby tracking results for today:

Colorado: Salazar 52%, Coors 43%. I've given up even hoping for sensible results here. Stays Toss-up.

Florida: Martinez 47%, Castor 45%. Toss-up.

Wisconsin: Feingold 57%, Michels 37%. Now Safe Dem. retention.

Pennsylvania: Specter 53%, Hoeffel 30%. Safe Rep. retention.

Iowa: Grassley 71%, Small 23%. Safe Rep. retention.

Nevada: Reid 56%, Ziser 36%. Safe Dem. retention.

Ohio: Voinovich 59%, Fingerhut 29%. Safe Rep. retention.

The only change effected by these polls is in Wisconsin. Michels has lost all chance at an upset, and Feingold finally breaks the 20% threshold. Thus, Safe Dem. retention.

And, onward! Note that these updates are considered later than the Zogby tracking postage, so any designation change that follows takes precedence. In rough order of competitiveness:

In Colorado, Mason-Dixon shows the race tied at 46%. Rocky Mountain News has a drastically different result, showing Salazar leading 48%-42%. I've been chided by readers for leaving this race at Toss-up, and the new polls seemingly show Salazar with the advantage.

But 'tis not so. I, as noted previously, now assign almost no weight at all to the Zogby tracking result. Rocky Mountain News' polling has been highly erratic this season, first showing Salazar +11, then Coors +5, and now Salazar +6. Unfortunately, they did not do an accompanying presidential horserace poll with the same sample (like Zogby) to compare with other pollsters' results. I don't frankly know what to make of this other than to discount the RMN poll as well in the figures. And, as if I needed another reason to doubt the RMN poll's results, it was a POS poll (in more ways than one apparently), which is usually a Republican partisan pollster.

So, discarding the new RMN and Zogby results, and the S+11 Gallup poll from early this month, the polls of this race this month have been rather evenly spaced. Three show Salazar ahead, three show Coors ahead, and two show a tie. I believe the true state of this race lies very near the result of the new Mason-Dixon poll. Toss-up, although I dare say Salazar has some momentum nonetheless, and could take it into the election. You'll just have to wait for my final predictions to find out!

In Florida, a number of polls have been recently released. Chronologically, Insider Advantage shows Martinez ahead 46%-44%; Quinnipiac shows Martinez leading 49%-46%; Mason-Dixon shows Martinez leading 47%-46%; and the Zogby poll shown earlier has Martinez leading 47%-45%.

The Zogby poll of Florida has been quite volatile, and is, after all, a Zogby poll, but even removing that one from the equation we have three discrete non-partisan polls showing a consistent Martinez lead. Although it will take a few more polls to verify, this may signal a major shift in the race. Although all three polls' leads are within the margin of error, the statistical significance of all three nearly-simultaneous polls within a couple points of each other nearly rules out these polls as anomalies. There seems to be a definite Leaning Rep. takeover trend in this race, and it will be hard for Castor to reverse in the next few days, as news out of the race has been generally positive for Martinez and desperate for Castor (<-- note: subjective opinion, make of it what you will). Then again, two non-partisan polls showing it tied or in Castor's camp could easily swing this one back to Toss-up. A very, very slim Martinez lead indeed, but that is, after all, all that is needed.

Update before the post even goes gold: the most recently released Strategic Vision poll (not yet on the website) shows Martinez ahead 49%-46%. It is automatically disregarded since, it is by definition a partisan poll, but the trend is unmistakable.

In North Carolina, two polls confirm that this is a very, very close race. Research 2000 shows Burr leading slightly 47%-46%, while Mason-Dixon shows the race all knotted up at 46%. Based on these two polls alone the call should be Toss-up, however...

Looking at the polls out of this race in the last month, we find only one showing Bowles ahead, and that was back at the very beginning of the month (10/5). The rest have ranged from Even to Burr +6. Clearly, Burr has the advantage here, although it is slight. This race could go either way, but at the present it is indeed Leaning Rep. takeover.

In South Carolina, a Republican poll from McLaughlin shows DeMint leading 48%-40% over Tenenbaum. Yes, it's partisan, but surely it has at least some nugget of truth in it? DeMint's lead is at almost a span-and-a-half of the MoE anyway. Regardless, whether this poll affected the designation or not, this race is Leaning Rep. takeover.

In Washington, a few polls were released and it was soon found they interested no one. SurveyUSA shows Murray ahead 55%-41%, and Mason-Dixon shows the same lead, but with slightly different numbers of 53%-39%. Strategic Vision (not yet up on site at last check) continues to differ with the non-partisans, showing Murray ahead 49%-41%. Again. One wonders if they're even polling, or just repeating the same numbers over and over. Regardless, it's technically partisan, and undeniably the oddball, and is effectively thrown out. This race is still Probably Dem. retention, as Murray has yet to crest the 20-point-lead threshold, although there is little doubt as to the eventual outcome of this race.

In Wisconsin, the afore-mentioned Zogby poll clashes with a partisan poll from Tarrance Group showing Feingold vulnerable and leading only 48%-43%. When confronted with the choice between a somewhat-sensible Zogby poll and a far off-kilter partisan poll, I choose to slice off several fingers and refuse to punditrate on this. This race will stay where we all know it belongs: Safe Dem. retention. Blech.

In Georgia, Strategic Vision (again not yet posted) confirms what everyone else already knew: Isakson is winning. This time it's reportedly by a 55%-40% margin. Partisan poll or no, this race is Probably Rep. takeover.

And, on to the Non-Competitive Races! What fun!

In California, a Field Poll shows Boxer leading 53%-34%. Unsurprising, and the designation remains Safe Dem. retention.

In Pennsylvania, along with the Zogby tracking poll, Quinnipiac shows Specter leading 60%-34%, his largest lead recently in the cycle, and Strategic Vision (you know the drill - not up yet) is a bit more conservative in putting Specter ahead 55%-35%. Safe Rep. retention, either way.

In Missouri, Research 2000 (no link - RCP) shows Bond ahead 56%-40%, while the Kansas City Star shows him leading 53%-36%. Both margins are closer than safe designation, but Bond is not in trouble this late in the race, and thus, Safe Rep. retention.

In New Hampshire the University of New Hampshire is starting a tracking poll tracking the Presidential horserace, gubernatorial race, Senate race, and both House seats. The first result shows Gregg leading comfortably 62%-23%. I doubt this result will change much in the next few days. Safe Rep. retention.

In Nevada, in addition to the Zog tracking above, Mason-Dixon polls the race and finds Reid ahead 59%-35%. Not surprising, and no change from Safe Dem. retention.

And, finally, in Iowa, in addition to Zog, a Research 2000 poll (no link - RCP ) shows Grassley cruising 65%-27%. Safe Rep. retention.

And that, friends, are all the polls for today. I'll spend a bit updating the pages, scrounge up some dinner, and then polish off my final predictions. But you'll have to wait till Sunday to find out what they are.

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