Sorry for yelling. Here they are, the ultimate results of months of punditry, for your consumption.
Senate Analysis 2004 – 11/1/04 Final Senate Race Predictions
Over the past several months, I've followed the Senate races closely, noting every poll and watching every trend. I've made predictions and then rescinded them. I've made mistakes and occasionally shown some insight (odds are out as to which I've done more, though). As the election nears – just tomorrow, in fact, it's time for my final predictions.
So, here they are. Not only am I predicting the winner of each race, I'm predicting the margin of victory – closer races have vote tally predictions, too – just to give me more chances to screw up (predictions for less competitive races will probably be off significantly – possibly 5-10 points or so – but I consider that much less egregious than mis-predicting a close toss-up race). I'll post after results are in tallying up my right-wrong record.
By state, alphabetically:
Alabama: Incumbent Richard Shelby faces only nominal opposition. This is one of several races that haven't even been polled this cycle.
Shelby by 65+%.
Alaska: This is possibly THE hardest race to call. If it were any other Republican candidate, this race wouldn't be close. If it were any other Democratic candidate, this race wouldn't be close. If it were in almost any other state, this race wouldn't be close. As it is, though, this race is a complete toss-up between Murkowski and Knowles.
Still, all the polls to date have shown Knowles leading, and although Murkowski has regained a substantial amount of ground, I don't know if she'll be able to pull back up to even or better by Election Day. Bush's coattails may help slightly, but I doubt many Alaskans will be hesitant to cast a split ticket. Third party candidates will probably siphon a few Republican votes, providing the final blow to Murkowski. I'm predicting a
Knowles win, ever-so-slightly,
48%-47%, and he will quite likely be unseated in 2010 by a much less vulnerable and much more conservative Republican candidate.
Dem. Takeover.
Arizona: John McCain is well-liked by many, and his opposition is faint. No polls are available of this race either. He'll be back for another term.
McCain by 60+%.
Arkansas: Republicans were hoping to overturn Blanche Lincoln, but it's unlikely. One poll showed her challenger within 14 points, but that's the closest he's gotten, and her margin has widened substantially since then.
Lincoln by 20%.
California: Incumbent Barbara Boxer faced significant opposition from Bill Jones, but in liberal California, he was never able to gain footing, and Boxer's lead has only widened as of late.
Boxer by 17%.
Colorado: Next to Alaska, this is the hardest race to call. Ken Salazar is a very strong, centrist Democratic candidate, and has polled very well throughout the campaign, but oddball polls have been prevalent here, and I'm not sure which one to trust. Flipping a coin, I see
Coors with the momentum and, with a 50% chance of being wrong, am predicting he
will keep this seat Republican, 49%-48%.
Connecticut: Incumbent Chris Dodd faced little opposition. The latest poll had him up by 45, and he will likely exceed that margin on Election Day.
Dodd by 47+%.
Florida: Florida is one of few presidential swing states also with a competitive Senate race this year, and both candidates seem to be aligning themselves with their party's presidential pick. I expect the result of the Senate race to be closely tied to the presidential results, and there will probably be very few cross-over votes.
With that said, then, polls have shown this race clearly very close throughout the campaign. Lately, though, Mel Martinez seems to have opened up a significant margin, leading in almost all recent polls. There are very few undecideds left in this race, and I believe the final result will be quite similar to recent polls, with the few undecideds breaking fairly evenly. I'm picking
Martinez to win 50%-49%.
Rep. Takeover.
Georgia: The fate of Zell Miller's seat was never really in question. Johnny Isakson has led for the entire campaign, and although his lead has shrunken slightly as of late, he will still cruise to a significant victory.
Isakson by 21%.
Rep. Takeover.
Hawaii: Incumbent Dan Inouye, along with having one of the strangest names in the Senate, has had little trouble in this election. No polls have been taken of this race, and none are really needed, although with the interesting state of affairs in the presidential race in HI, this race may be slightly closer than expected.
Inouye by 60+%.
Idaho: Senator Mike Crapo does not have a Democratic challenger, and I'm not sure if this race will even be on the ballot.
Crapo by 95+%.
Illinois: Ever since Barack Obama's stunning keynote at the DNC, and the decision of the IL GOP to import Alan Keyes as their candidate, this race has been quite unexciting.
Obama by 48+%.
Dem. Takeover.
Indiana: Incumbent Evan Bayh has faced little contest, and will be back for another term.
Bayh by 33+%.
Iowa: Incumbent Chuck Grassley has faced only small opposition, and will be back in DC for another term.
Grassley by 40+%.
Kansas: Incumbent Sam Brownback has had little contest in this race, and no polls are even available for it.
Brownback by 65+%.
Kentucky: One of the dark-horse contests after Senator Bunning's erratic behavior of late, Democrats became suddenly enthused, and left-wing sites listed this race as a possible takeover after a partisan poll showed the race tied. State Senator Dan Mongiardo has made a valiant effort and gotten several breaks in this race, but will probably not be able to make it all the way in this conservative state, although he will make it much closer than anyone would have predicted three months ago.
Bunning, 52%-43%.
Louisiana: I absolutely refuse to explain LA's election system again. If you're reading this, you should know about it. With that said, I've been vocally predicting all along that Vitter could get through this one without a runoff, and I still think I'm right. Recent polls have him between 48 and 51 percent, and over 10% of all voters are undecided. A majority of the undecideds are likely undecided between Democratic candidates, but nonetheless it should not be hard for Vitter to pick up a few points.
I'm predicting
Vitter becomes Louisiana's first Republican senator, polling slightly
north of 52% on Election Day, with Chris John winning the race for useless second with 23%, Kennedy with 20%, and Arthur Morell with 3% or so. Rep. Takeover.
Maryland: Incumbent Barbara Mikulski will cruise to another term by a considerable margin.
Mikulski by 30+%.
Missouri: Earlier this cycle, Senator Kit Bond looked vulnerable to the DSCC, and many started pouring money into Nancy Farmer's campaign, hoping to effect an upset. Unfortunately, Bond's vulnerability never developed, and he has led significantly throughout the campaign, and will walk to another term.
Bond by 25+%.
Nevada: Likewise in Nevada, Republicans were optimistic about defeating sitting Assistant Minority Leader Harry Reid, but a disappointing primary field drowned any prospects of an upset.
Reid by 31+%.
New Hampshire: Incumbent Judd Gregg will cruise over his 81-year-old opponent, Doris “Granny D” Haddock.
Gregg by 40+%.
New York: Chuck Schumer is facing two major opponents, one from the Republican Party, another from the Conservative Party of New York. It won't matter, as he'll crush both of them.
Schumer by 47+% over his nearest opponent, 35+% over the combined total of both.
North Carolina: Back in the summer, Erskine Bowles maintained a significant lead in this race to replace John Edwards. I predicted then that not only would the race tighten, but his opponent, Richard Burr would come back and eventually win the race. So far, it appears my prediction will hold. Burr has led in six of the last eight polls, with the other two showing a tie. It will still be close, but I'm predicting a
Burr win here, 50%-47%.
Rep. Takeover.
North Dakota: Incumbent Byron Dorgan has faced little opposition, and no polls have been taken of this race.
Dorgan by 60+%.
Ohio: The Ohio race has been polled substantially, but only because the state is a major presidential battleground. Challenger Eric Fingerhut has been unable to pick up steam, and Incumbent George Voinovich will cruise to a second term.
Voinovich by 26+%.
Oklahoma: This race should never have really been close. If you look at the polling trends, Coburn led for most of the summer, which melted into a solid Carson lead for most of the fall, and has only recently, in the past several weeks, come back to a steady Coburn lead. Coburn, like DeMint in SC, has a nasty habit of shooting off his mouth when it would be politically expedient to shut up, which has hurt him significantly. He could probably be leading by ten points if it weren't for some stupid comments he's made.
Don't count out Sheila Bilyeu's impact on the race, either. The left-wing wacko has polled upwards of 5%, which would assumably have gone to Carson otherwise, perhaps making the difference in the race.
This race is hard to call numerically due to the large amount of undecideds still left, even a few days before the Election. I'm guessing they break about 3-out-of-5 for Carson, and
Coburn pulls it out 49%-45%, with Bilyeu picking off 5%.
Oregon: Incumbent Ron Wyden will cruise to a second term.
Wyden by 25+%.
Pennsylvania: Democrats were quite optimistic about defeating incumbent Arlen Specter, particularly after a divisive fight in the Republican primary, but their hopes have failed to pan out. Specter has rarely polled below a double-digit lead, and will win re-election by a significant margin.
Specter by 16+%.
South Carolina: Previously in the season, this race was considered to be, alongside Georgia, an assured Republican takeover. Jim DeMint led by double digits for most of the summer. However, as the race heated up, he made a few off-color comments, and suddenly the race tightened.
However, he never once lost the lead in non-partisan polls, and to this day enjoys a significant advantage. I'm predicting a
DeMint win, 51%-41% over Tenenbaum.
Rep. Takeover.
South Dakota: The sitting leader of either party should never be in electoral trouble. Not since the '50s has one been defeated in his re-election bid. Tom Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader, is up for re-election this year, and is being faced by John Thune, a former Representative. Thune lost to Tim Johnson, SD's other Senator, by just a few hundred votes in 2002.
Throughout the campaign, polls have been fairly sparse, and the lead has flip-flopped back and forth among the non-partisan polls. This race is quite clearly a complete toss-up, but Thune has been gaining momentum lately, and South Dakota is, I think, ready for a change. I'm picking
Thune to knock off Daschle by a significant margin,
51%-48%.
Rep. Takeover.
Utah: I'm running out of ways to say the incumbent has faced little to no opposition and will be re-elected. Incumbent
Bennett by 40+%.
Vermont: Ditto on the Utah comment. Incumbent
Leahy by 55+%.
Washington: In Washington, Republicans had high hopes of knocking off Patty Murray, and recruited a decent, if not exemplary, candidate for the job in Rep. George Nethercutt. Nethercutt, however, has been unable to gain the advantage, and has never polled within close range of Murray. She will be re-elected by a very un-close margin.
Murray by 17%.
Wisconsin: Likewise, the NRSC hoped to defeat incumbent Russ Feingold here, but the late primary hampered their efforts. Feingold, although polling somewhat close, has never looked significantly vulnerable, and has increased his lead throughout the campaign. He will cruise to a substantial victory and another term.
Feingold by 16%.
Republican pick-ups: GA, SC, NC, SD, LA, and FL
Democratic pick-ups: IL, AK
Well, that's it. Republicans look to gain a net 4 seats, to a new advantage of 55-45 (Jeffords counted as a Democrat, of course). As I've continually stressed, I've tried to be as objective as possible throughout the campaign season, and we'll see whether my predictions are more my hopes as a Republican, or the result of my analysis of the polls.
'Twill be posted on FR momentarily. Please feel free to comment.
8:43 PM Update: 'Tis
here. Enjoy...
8:54 PM Update: Nope. Stupid FR Mods moved it
here. Not that you care...
10:31 PM Update: Now
here, hopefully to stay. Yeesh... Also, thanks for the heads-up on Mikulski. Just another case of journalistic sloppiness on my part...
7:28 PM, 11/1 Update: This is when these predictions were supposed to be posted. Luckily I had the foresight to throw them out early, as, had I not, they likely wouldn't have gotten done (reference above post). Thanks for the heads-up on Senator Gregg, Dirk. How embarrassing...
